Thanks to our Wolves correspondent, MT, for this one:
Me: The 2012-13 Minnesota Timberwolves will win 50
games.
You: I'm sorry, there's a police stand-off outside
the building and 100 police sirens are blaring, and I'm also currently wearing
my October earmuffs. Can you repeat that?
Me: The 2012-13 Minnesota Timberwolves will win 50
games.
You: I still don't think I heard you right. I was
interrupted by my iPhone 5, which just played a Justin Bieber clip, meaning I
got a text message from my mom's friend. One more time, what did you say?
Me: The 2012-13 Minnesota Timberwolves will win 50
games.
You: *starts dialing 9-1-1*
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hey, I agree, 50 games seems like a lot… OK, and when
a team hasn't won more than 33 games in EIGHT YEARS, it really, really seems
like a lot… And considering that the Western Conference could feature as many
as nine OTHER 50 game winners this year, including three 60 game winners… Well,
OK, 50 games really is a lot.
Nevertheless, the 2012-13 Minnesota Timberwolves will win at
least 50 games. Here's why:
1. Last
year's team was THIS close.
Contrary to popular B.A.B.
(Bay Area Belief), had the 2011-12 season ended prior to the date that now
lives in infamy (March 9, 2012: Ricky's Injury), the Minnesota Timberwolves
would have been the 8th Seed in the NBA Playoffs. What??? Oh that's right,
you, like everyone else, completely blacked out after the date that lives in
infamy and don't recall anything from the rest of the season, aside from
Michael Beasley rubbing Anthony Tolliver's knee on the bench and thinking it
was actually his own. Is this really true that the Timberwolves were the 8th
seed at one point last year? Yes, it's true. Prior to Ricky's injury, the
Wolves were a playoff team. The team was 21-19 to be exact on that date, but
more importantly the team was in the midst of picking up steam and running
downhill on an 18-13 run since allowing the unicorn to take over in the
starting lineup. Extrapolating that 18-13 record (58.1 winning pct.) over an
82 game season amounts to 47.6 wins. Whoa, whoa, whoa, hold on a sec… you're
saying that LAST YEAR's haphazardly thrown together squad of misfit toys was on
a 48 win pace once Ricard entered the starting lineup?? Actually 47.6 wins,
but yes, that is correct. And as we continue, just remember, that was LAST
YEAR's haphazardly thrown together squad of misfit toys, complete with Darko
Milicic straightjacket and Anthony Randolph changing table.
2. This
year's team is THIS much better than last year's team.
Let's take a moment to
examine the transformation resulting from one summer's worth of Adelman &
Sons asserting their collective will upon the franchise which had seen the
squad assembled over the previous summers under David Kahn's "brain:
optional" roster construction policy:
OUT:
Beasley, Wes, Webster, Ellington, Darko, Randolph, Tolliver, Miller
IN:
Kirilenko, Roy, Budinger, Stiemsma, Shved, Amundson, Cunningham
SAME: Love,
Rubio, Pekovic, Ridnour, Williams, Barea, Lee
Re-read that "IN"
list one more time. Now give the "OUT" list another look. OK, now
this time really stare at the "OUT" list. Now read the
"OUT" list, followed quickly by the "SAME" list, followed
even more quickly by the "IN" list. OK, we're ready. Let's break
this down objectively. From the list of last year's players no longer on the
club, there are literally ZERO guys that would play rotational minutes on a
GOOD team. Anthony Tolliver is the only player that's even close. Karaoke
favorite Michael Beasley is an above average, albeit streaky, offensive player,
but he will never play meaningful minutes for a championship team, unless of
course he joins a team in the skittles-eating league, in which case he would be
a lock for 20 consecutive Finals MVPs.
Now, as we look at the list
of players coming "IN", it could be argued that EVERY single player
could play rotational minutes on a good team, with the current exception
possibly being Alexey Shved (although current should be emphasized).
Well, this must be an exaggeration right? No. But you're basically saying
that all of the "OUT" players are garbage and all of the
"IN" players can contribute to a good team. Prove it. OK, no
problem. Dante Cunningham played 7.0 rotational minutes per game in 7 PLAYOFF
games for the Grizzlies last year. Lou Amundson played 8.5 minutes per game in
11 PLAYOFF games for the Pacers last year. Greg Stiemsma played 7.5 minutes
per game in 19 PLAYOFF games for the Celtics last year. And these three guys
are arguably the 5th, 6th and 7th best players picked up by the Wolves this
summer. You see where we're going here? It's not about accumulating as much
"length" and "athleticism" as humanly possible. It's about
assembling the best and most cohesive unit. The three guys mentioned are solid
role players, nothing more, nothing less. They're not being brought in to put
the team on their shoulders. That's what is already required of the group of
guys we're about to discuss.
Well, we can all agree that
the positive vibes flowing from the last two paragraphs regarding the roster
turnover is great but get this: from our "SAME" list we see a Top-10
(borderline Top-5) player in the league who is likely still improving, a Top-10
point guard in the league (Top-3 Passing and Top-3 Defensively) who is
definitely improving and has the potential to be transcendent (only a mild
exaggeration), a Top-10 center in the league who is definitely adding skulls to
the pile (i.e., improving), a couple role playing guards and a player still
with potential. So, basically, the cornerstones of the roster were all left in
place. These are the guys, specifically Love, Rubio and Pekovic, upon which
the team will be carried as far as it's going to go no matter who's around
them. Kirilenko, Roy, Budinger and the rest of the cast are here to make their
jobs easier. And they will. Especially compared to last year's ensemble of
fast food workers. So, essentially as of now, all of the pieces are in place.
You're having trouble
comprehending/believing this. Me too. How could a team go about trimming ALL
of its fat (literally, in the case of Dorko), while obtaining nothing but
muscle in its stead, while also simultaneously retaining and allowing its
existing muscle to further strengthen (literally, in the case of The Godfather
Nikola Pekovic)? This sounds like the work of Adelman & Sons.
3. This
year's team is THIS much better than last year's team: Part II.
To simplify things even
further, here's a categorical breakdown comparing last year's squad to this
year's:
Offense:
Let's see, last year Wes Johnson took the second most three-point attempts on a
team with the sixth most three-point attempts in the league, a team with the
eighth worst three-point shooting percentage in the league. In related
news, no one would be surprised if Wes Johnson were to smile and thank the cop
for the speeding ticket he just gave him. In unrelated news, Chase Budinger
plays for this year's team and last year, he shot 48.5% on corner threes. Wes
Johnson shot 28% on corner threes last year. Having guys capable of converting
a wide-open jump shot is a definite leap forward, but there's a whole host of
other factors that make this year's team much better offensively, including the
team IQ level and the amount of guys that can actually dribble a basketball
this year, but we'll keep this one short. ADVANTAGE: This Year's Team
Defense:
Was Andrei Kirilenko on last year's team? Oh, he wasn't? Well, is he on this
year's team? He is?!?!?! ADVANTAGE: This Year's Team
Rebounding:
From the list of "OUT" players no longer on the team, Michael Beasley
is the best rebounder. It should probably also be noted that this year's team
features a starting front-line of Love, Pekovic and Kirilenko. These might be
the only three guys in the league that have heard the phrase "boxing
out" before. ADVANTAGE: This Year's Team
Passing: Admittedly,
there is definitely an elephant in the room here that needs to finally be
addressed. The western conference features a team where Jeremy Lin is arguably
its best player. LOL. Talk about a team with issues. OK, OK, so we
don't know exactly when Ricky Rubio will play again, and we don't know how long
it will take for things to eventually start clicking once he returns. However,
that being said, Ricky's return needn't be rushed, because the team will manage
for the time being, and there are two primary reasons why. One, Rick Adelman
is the head coach for the Timberwolves. And two, Rick Adelman constructed this
year's roster for the Timberwolves. A Rick Adelman coached/constructed team
relies primarily on basketball intelligence, but also on high energy and
character. A seemingly long-lost concept called playing "team
basketball" is also a primary pillar. Everybody on this year's roster
knows how to pass, how to move without the ball and how to communicate and help
on defense. Basketball 101 you say? Try telling that to Darko as he competes
with himself for the most disinterested/psychotic expression one can maintain
while sitting at the end of the bench. So anyway, what you're saying is that
we shouldn't be worried about counting down the seconds until the Return of
Ricky since Adelman has everything under control right? Heck no, of course we
need to get that second-counter going!! Getting struck by lightning would not
be fun! OK, now we've clarified the troubling elephant-unicorn-lightning
corollary. What category were we talking about again? Passing, right. Hmm…
no Ricky for a couple months… hmm… oh right… Adelman coached/constructed team!
ADVANTAGE: This Year's Team
Chemistry/Intangibles:
There's a multitude of factors to be weighed here, making this potentially one
of the trickiest categories to decipher. On one hand… you have five fingers. ADVANTAGE:
This Year's Team
Coaching:
No doubt Rick Adelman did a masterful job last year. But let's face it, no
longer having "babysitter" as one of his primary roles is a massive
upgrade. ADVANTAGE: This Year's Team
Well, what have we learned?
The 2012-13 Phoenix Suns featuring a reunion of Michael Beasley and Wesley
Johnson, in the starting lineup no less, will lead the league in LOLs. OK,
very true, but what else? The 2012-13 Houston Rockets feature the least
intelligent Harvard grad ever and the most philosophical shoplifter that's
afraid to fly ever, allowing them to lead the league in :(. OK, we're
definitely on to something here, but we're missing one more thing. The 2012-13
Minnesota Timberwolves will win 50 games!! Yes!!! What a learned individual
you are! So, without further ado, let's move on to the predictions.
OK, we now know that 50 wins
is the baseline for this season's Wolves. What that means is that we're no
longer merely talking about a team making the playoffs for the first time since
2004 (a much simpler time, back when Latrell Sprewell was still able to feed
his family), but we're now talking about how high of seed can be achieved. The
way I see it, barring injury, only the top two seeds in the West are out of
reach. From there, number three is probably unrealistic as well, but spot four
is definitely up for grabs. As was touched on earlier, the West is loaded
again this year, but the Wolves figure to be right in the thick of things.
2012-13 Western Conference
Standings
Tier 1
1. OKC 61-21… Durant,
Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka, Perkins, Sefolosha, N.Collison, Maynor… The fact that they seem likely to retain both Ibaka AND
Harden at less than max deals is unfair to the rest of "our league"
(David Kahn ©2009).
2. LAL 60-22… Bryant,
Howard, Nash, Gasol, Artest, Jamison, J.Hill, Meeks... Along
with the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Clippers, the Los Angeles Lakers comprise a
three team league known as the "National Basketball Association" or
"NBA" (ESPN ©2012).
Tier 2
3. SAN 56-26… Duncan,
Parker, Ginobli, K.Leonard, Diaw, Splitter, S.Jackson, D.Green… Can someone check the expiration date on this nuclear
fallout care package of Twinkies and #CokeZero?
4. LAC 52-30…
C.Paul, Griffin, D.Jordan, Butler, Billups, Odom, Crawford, Bledsoe… The Wolves own this squad. Next.
5. DEN 51-31…
Iguodala, Lawson, Gallinari, Faried, McGee, Chandler, A.Miller, Koufos... A true superstar does not exist on this team, but an
above average starter resides at every position, easily making this one of the
most balanced teams in the league.
6. MEM 51-31… M.Gasol,
Gay, Z.Randolph, Conley, Allen, Speights, Arthur, Ellington(lol)… The reeling Grizzlies must pull together and attempt the
unfathomable: moving on in the Post-Mayonnaise Era.
7. MIN 50-32… Love,
Rubio, Pekovic, Kirilenko, Roy, Budinger, Ridnour, D.Williams, Stiemsma, Barea,
Shved, Amundson, Cunningham, Lee… Out of respect
for the quality of the other teams alone, Minnesota is at the bottom of this
tier. They can compete with and take down any of them, however. #RealTweet
Tier 3
8. UTA 45-37… A.Jefferson,
Millsap, Favors, Hayward, Mo.Williams, Ma.Williams, Kanter, Burks… If Big Al and/or Millsap can be packaged for a point
guard of some kind, look out.
9. DAL 44-38…
Nowitzki, Marion, D.Collison, Kaman, Mayo, Brand, D.West… The reeling Mavericks must pull together and attempt the
unfathomable: moving on in the Mayonnaise Era.
10. GSW 40-42…
S.Curry, D.Lee, Bogut, K.Thompson, H.Barnes, C.Landry, B.Rush, J.Jack,
R.Jefferson… Everything hinges on the collective
glass appendages of this team. On paper, 50 wins is not out of the realm of
possibility. Within the realm of reality, however, a 40 win season seems more
than generous.
Tier 4
11. POR 32-50…
Aldridge, Batum, Matthews, Lillard, M.Leonard, Hickson… We all saw Nic Batum in the Olympics unleash his pent-up frustration
over not fulfilling his "dream" of playing for the Wolves. What a
steal for Portland though. $46M over four years for this superstar really sets
them up for four years of title contention.
12. NOH 30-52…
E.Gordon, A.Davis, R.Anderson, Aminu, Vasquez, Lopez, Rivers… This team features The Brow. 'Nuff Said. Oh wait, they
added "Most Improved Player" Ryan Anderson from Orlando. A 40 win
season seemed remotely possible before this fact was remembered.
13. PHX 29-53…
Beasley, Wes J...(just kidding; not really)…Dragic, Scola, Gortat, Dudley… LOL.
14. SAC 28-54…
Cousins, T.Evans, M.Thornton, J.Thompson, I.Thomas, T.Robinson, Jimmer… Meh. Too many John Smiths on this team to elicit
interest.
15. HOU 27-55… J.Lin,
K.Martin, Parsons, Asik, Patterson, J.Lamb, Morris, T.Jones, R.White… Look for the return of out-and-out Linsanity early in the
season. Three straight TIME magazine covers minimum. And that's just
the start. By the Lin-Star break (formerly "All-Star break"), look
for ESPLin (formerly "ESPN") to move its headquarters from Bristol,
Connecticut to HoustLin (formerly "Houston"), Texas (now known as the
"Lin Star State"). Following his other-worldly Finals MVP
performance, look for Jeremy Lin to immediately move to 1600 PennsLinvania
Avenue and start his much-deserved U.S. Presidency, where his only task will be
looking to increase his 100% approval rating. The End.
Ultimately, the key for the
Wolves will be simply reaching the playoffs. If and when this happens, we can
expect a potentially devastating rotation looking something like this:
PG:
Rubio/Ridnour/Barea/Shved
SG:
Roy/Budinger/Shved/Ridnour
SF:
Kirilenko/Budinger/D.Williams/Cunningham
PF:
Love/D.Williams/Kirilenko/Cunningham
C:
Pekovic/Stiemsma/Love/Amundson
Versatility. Energy. IQ.
The Thunder and Lakers want no part of this seven or eight seed. If one or
even two of Brandon Roy, Derrick Williams or Alexey Shved shines this year,
watch out. In all honesty, a first round playoff exit is the likeliest of
scenarios, but forcing Oklahoma City to six games would be quite an
accomplishment for a team that employed Jonny Flynn a little over a year ago.
If everything goes right though, who knows… Second Round… Western Conference
Finals… Fina… nah we'll hold that thought for now. Next year though? Look for
the Wolves to be in the running for their first banner, attempting to accompany
the THREE Lynx banners that will just be hanging around by that time.
(Note #1: For the readers
out there who are chronically addicted to gambling, please note that the Wolves
opened in Vegas at 38.5 wins and have since jumped to 40.5, still well below
our baseline of 50.)
(Note #2: All comments
regarding one, Jeremy Lin, are in no way meant to detract from the integrity of
this piece. They are meant to detract only from the integrity of those who
believe in and support one, Jeremy Lin. Go Wolves! We're comin'! We're
comin'!)
